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Crude Prices Jump On Supply Concerns Oil Prices
Tuesday, 04-Jan-2005 2:10PM The Associated Press - AP Online
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Crude oil futures jumped Tuesday as traders appeared to remain concerned about tight supplies of heating oil and after reports that Saudi Arabia had delivered on its promise to scale back output.

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Light sweet crude for February delivery climbed $1.78 to $43.90 in afternoon trade on the New York Mercantile Exchange, as February heating oil futures zipped 5.58 cents higher to $1.248 per gallon.

Marshall Steeves, an analyst at Refco Inc. in New York, said expectations of some colder weather -- and possibly a snowstorm -- in the Northeast may have sparked the buying, while the move was likely magnified by traders who had been anticipating lower prices and had to cover their bets.

"There has been a lot of trend trading in the market", Steeves added, referring to hedge funds and other non-commercial traders who buy and sell based on price momentum, contributing to market volatility.

The momentum may also have been fueled by a report that Saudi Arabia's oil minister confirmed that his nation had cut its output by 500,000 barrels a day as part of an agreement reached late last year by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Even though the production cuts were expected, "when the Saudi oil minister says something, the collective ears of the market perk up a little bit", Steeves said.

Seeking to maintain higher prices without seeing them explode, ministers of OPEC plan to meet Jan. 30 to decide on the need for production cutbacks beyond the 1 million barrels a day they agreed on last month.

OPEC sources at the organization's headquarters in Vienna said ahead of that gathering that acting Secretary General Purnomo Yusgiantoro of Indonesia had been replaced as of Sunday by Kuwait's Adnan Shihab-Eldin, the head of OPEC's research division.

Purnomo was believed to have asked to step down. With his tenure marked by occasionally conflicting pronouncements, analysts said the change would likely strengthen OPEC's attempts to speak with a unified voice.

Beyond the weather and OPEC, futures were likely to take direction from the U.S. Energy Department's next weekly petroleum supply report, which is scheduled to be released Wednesday.

Distillate levels in the United States -- the world's largest energy consumer -- are lower than a year ago, and colder weather sparks higher demand for heating fuel. Distillates include heating oil, diesel and jet fuel, all premiums as winter bites in the Northern Hemisphere.

"We have to watch the weekly numbers coming out tomorrow", said Paul Horsnell, head of energy research at Barclays Capital in London. He said the market continues to focus on "distillates and the continuation of relatively mild weather on the (U.S.) East Coast."

While crude oil futures are around $11 per barrel cheaper than the highs recorded in late October, prices are about 30 percent higher compared to year-ago levels.

Markets were roiled in 2004 due to stronger-than-expected demand and persistent supply fears and unrest in key producers Saudi Arabia, Russia, Venezuela, Nigeria and Iraq.


Associated Press Writer George Jahn in Vienna, Austria, and Wee Sui Lee in Singapore contributed to this report.

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